The Executive Summary
Solo creators at $60–$150K/year running $5K+ discovery calls at 15% conversion lose 20 buyers per 100 conversations to uncompensated perceived risk — not to price, credentials, or better competitors.
Who this is for: Solo coaches, consultants, and course creators at $60–$150K/year with 10+ delivered engagements and high-ticket close rates stuck below 20%
The conversion problem: 85 out of 100 qualified buyers who want to say yes default to inaction because the creator has not transferred the downside risk; the daily bleed at 15% close rate on a $5K offer is $4,500 in unconverted revenue before a single call is run
What you’ll learn: The Risk-Reversal Stack, Tier 1 Outcome Guarantee, Tier 2 Partial Refund Trigger, Tier 3 Milestone Credit, Guarantee Track Record Protocol, and three Guarantee Presentation Timing Variants
What changes if you apply it: Close rate moves from risk-burdened to risk-transferred — the buyer’s decision calculus shifts from “what if this doesn’t work for me” to a defined downside on the creator’s side of the table
Time to implement: 60 minutes for tier selection diagnostic; 90 minutes to write guarantee language; 2 hours to install into call script and email sequence; conversion data observable within the first 10 guarantee-active calls
Written by Nour Boustani for solo coaches, consultants, and course creators at $60–$150K/year who want high-ticket close rates above 30% without lowering prices or softening offers.
› Library Navigation: Quick Navigation · Internet Solos and Creators
Risk-Reversal Stack: Closing High-Ticket Offers Without a Brand
Solo creators selling $5K+ coaching engagements at a 15% close rate may not be losing to better-credentialed competitors. The buyer may want to say yes but still see too much risk in hiring someone without an agency name behind them.
The unspoken question is: “What happens if this doesn’t work?” A performance guarantee architecture addresses that concern before it stalls the sale. For solo operators in the Scaling band ($60–150K/year), the aim is to lift close rates from 15% to 35% without building a larger brand, extending a track record, or lowering the price.
Where are you with this right now?
“I’m on discovery calls for $5K+ offers and conversion is stuck below 20%.” You’re inside this constraint. The framework below installs the guarantee architecture. Start at Tier 1 and work forward through the tier selection decision tree before your next call.
“I haven’t delivered ten paid engagements yet.” The guarantee only works when you can back it — and the backing requires a track record. Run at least 10 engagements with measurable outcomes at a lower price point first. Return here when you have the data to select the right tier confidently.
“I already offer a refund policy, and it hasn’t changed my conversion rate.”
A refund policy explains what happens after a buyer requests money back. A performance guarantee states a specific commitment before the buyer decides, then makes that commitment clear on the call. The distinction and how to apply it are covered in Choose the Right Risk-Reversal Guarantee.
Check Your Last 10 Discovery Calls
Pull your last 10 discovery calls for an offer priced above $2,000.
Count how many became paid engagements. Divide by 10 to get your close rate.
Of the calls that did not convert, count how many ended without a clear objection. The prospect may have said “I need to think about it” or gone quiet afterward.
If more than half of non-conversions had no stated objection, unstated risk may be the gap to investigate. Don’t assume price or qualification is the problem without checking.
High-ticket solo offers can stall at the close even when the creator has credibility. At the Scaling band ($60–150K/year), the creator may have results, testimonials, and a track record. But if that proof does not address what the buyer stands to lose, the buyer still carries the weight of the decision.
Why High-Ticket Buyers Hesitate
The same risk gap can appear across offer formats.
High-Ticket Coach
Revenue: $90K/year.
Offer: $5,000 coaching engagement.
Sales activity: 25 discovery calls per month.
Close rate: 15%, or roughly four clients per month.
The calls go well. The coach is articulate and the offer is clear, but follow-up emails after non-converting calls often get no reply. When prospects do respond, they say “I’ll think about it more” or “it’s not the right time.” The coach concludes that price is the problem, though the calls have not established that.
Course Creator
Revenue: $75K/year.
Offer: $4,500 group program.
Audience: 8,000 subscribers.
Sales activity: 40 strategy calls booked by warm, opted-in leads.
Result: Six sales, a 15% close rate.
Post-call surveys show that prospects liked the call and the program. The drop-off happens in the 48 hours afterward, when they are alone with the decision and have no clear way to limit their risk.
Consultant
Revenue: $110K/year.
Offer: $6,000 advisory engagement.
Close rate on referrals: 40%.
Close rate on inbound cold-warm leads from content: 12%.
The offer and presenter are the same. Existing clients and referrals arrive with trust already established; cold-warm leads do not. For those buyers, the consultant still needs to address the risk of saying yes.
THE CONVERSION GAP
15% close rate (solo, no guarantee)
↓
100 qualified conversations
↓
15 clients
↓
85 prospects who wanted to say yes
but carried the risk aloneThe pattern is structural. A strong call does not necessarily remove the buyer’s risk. If the prospect sees a $5,000 commitment to a solo creator as risky, inaction can feel safer than saying yes.
Why More Testimonials May Not Fix the Close Rate
The standard advice is: “Get more social proof.” Testimonials show that other clients succeeded. They do not answer the buyer’s more personal question: “What happens if this doesn’t work for me?”
Testimonials provide third-party evidence of capability. A structured guarantee states what the creator will do if the agreed outcome is not reached. Collecting more testimonials may leave the close rate unchanged if the buyer already believes the offer works but still worries about their own downside.
Calculate the Cost of a Stuck Close Rate
The gap becomes visible when call volume and offer price stay constant. At 100 qualified discovery calls per month and $5,000 per engagement:
At a 15% close rate: 15 clients and $75,000 in monthly revenue.
At a 35% close rate: 35 clients and $175,000 in monthly revenue.
Difference: 20 clients and $100,000 per month, or $1,200,000 across 12 months.
That is a model of potential revenue from the same pipeline, not a forecast that a guarantee will produce a 35% close rate. It also assumes consistent call volume, qualified leads, and capacity to serve the additional clients.
Across 22 working days, 100 calls per month is about 4.5 calls per day. The 20-client monthly gap averages about 0.9 clients, or roughly $4,500 in potential revenue, per working day.
Conversion Gap Cost Calculator
- Monthly qualified discovery calls: [calls]
- Current close rate: [rate]%
- Offer price: $[price]
- Clients per month at current rate: [calls] × [rate]% = [clients]
- Revenue per month at current rate: [clients] × $[price] = $[revenue]
- Clients per month at 35%: [calls] × 35% = [clients]
- Revenue per month at 35%: [clients] × $[price] = $[revenue]
- Monthly gap: $[revenue at 35%] − $[revenue at current rate] = $[gap]
- Annual gap: $[monthly gap] × 12 = $[annual gap]Completed Example: 50 Calls per Month at $5,000
- Current: 50 × 15% = 7.5 clients/month; 7.5 × $5,000 = $37,500/month
- At 35%: 50 × 35% = 17.5 clients/month; 17.5 × $5,000 = $87,500/month
- Monthly gap: $87,500 − $37,500 = $50,000
- Annual gap: $50,000 × 12 = $600,000The fractional client figures are monthly averages for modeling, not literal numbers of clients in a given month.
Check Whether Your Offer Is Ready for a Guarantee
This framework is for creators in the Scaling band ($60–150K/year) with at least 10 delivered engagements and measurable outcomes. That record gives you a basis for choosing a credible guarantee tier.
At the Validation and Survival bands, resistance to a sub-$2,000 offer may come from unclear positioning or weak urgency. A guarantee adds complexity if it does not address the real constraint. If you are below $60K/year, start with Why No One Is Buying Your Offer (And How to Fix the Architecture).
At the Scaling band, a creator may raise the price, see conversion fall, and assume the market will not pay. First check whether buyers object to the price or to the risk of paying an unfamiliar provider.
Adjust the Guarantee to Your Sales History
Within 30 Days
If you have sold the high-ticket offer for fewer than six months and your close rate is below 20%:
Select a guarantee tier.
Revise the call script.
Update the email sequence.
The proposed installation takes one week and about 4 hours of work. Check the next 10 calls for an early signal, but do not treat that small sample as a reliable new close rate.
30–90 Days
If you have sold the same offer for six months or more at a consistently low close rate, use the same installation steps. Allow 30–60 days for the close-rate data to reflect the change.
Budget 4 hours for installation and 4–6 weeks of adjusted pipeline expectations.
90+ Days
If you have run more than 100 discovery calls at below 20% conversion on an offer above $3,000, a guarantee alone may not be enough. Reposition the offer in the first two minutes of the call so perceived risk does not build before you introduce the guarantee. The later recovery section covers that protocol.
The constraint is buyer risk that the sales conversation has not addressed. The next section sets out a three-tier guarantee architecture for matching the risk-transfer mechanism to your offer and delivery record.
How to Choose a Guarantee for Your High-Ticket Offer
When a buyer does not close, the perceived downside may outweigh the expected benefit. The Risk-Reversal Stack addresses that calculation without changing your offer, price, or track record. It shifts a defined part of the downside from the buyer to you.
The stack has three tiers, each suited to a different offer and delivery record. Choose the tier diagnostically: the wrong guarantee can create exposure you cannot manage or signal more confidence than your results justify.
Tier 1: The Outcome Guarantee
“If you don’t achieve [specific milestone] by [specific date], I extend the engagement at no charge until you do.”
This addresses the buyer’s fear of paying $5,000 and getting no useful result. If the milestone is missed, you provide more time rather than a refund. That creates a real delivery cost, even though it does not require a cash repayment. Define the endpoint and client obligations before making the promise.
Use Tier 1 when you have delivered the engagement at least 10 times, more than 70% of clients have reached the proposed milestone, and the milestone is specific, measurable, and within your control. A functioning email nurture sequence that is live and generating replies is more concrete than a promise that the client will “feel more confident.”
When the outcome depends on market conditions, guarantee the work you control instead. For example: “If your campaign doesn’t have a functioning split-test architecture running within 30 days, I continue at no charge until it does.” For an engagement lasting six months or more, use an earlier checkpoint: “By Day 30, you’ll have [specific deliverable]. If not, I extend the next 30 days at no charge.”
Executive Presence Coach: Worked Example
Revenue and offer: $85K/year; $5,000 for a 90-day executive presence engagement.
Delivery record: 14 engagements; 11 clients landed a board presentation or major keynote opportunity within 90 days, a 78% success rate.
Reported result: Close rate moved from 15% to 38% over the following 10 calls.
On the call, the coach says:
“If you don’t land a board-level presentation opportunity within 90 days of working together, I extend our engagement at no charge until you do. I’ve delivered this 14 times. Eleven clients hit that milestone within 90 days. The three who didn’t got there by month five. I’m accountable to that outcome.”
The 10-call result is a small sample, not a reliable prediction of what another creator will achieve. The promise also needs a clear boundary for how long an extension can continue.
Tier 1 Selection Criteria
- Delivered the engagement 10+ times? YES/NO
- Success rate above 70% on the guaranteed milestone? YES/NO
- Milestone specific and measurable? YES/NO
- Milestone within your control? YES/NO
- All four YES: Use Tier 1.
- Any NO: Consider Tier 2 or Tier 3 instead.Deploying Tier 1 without meeting those criteria risks frequent extensions and a confidence claim your record cannot support. If invocation exceeds 30%, the stated model estimates $1,500+ in extension time per 10 clients; treat that as a cost assumption to test against your own delivery hours.
Tier 2: The Partial Refund Trigger
Tier 2 transfers a defined portion of the buyer’s financial risk to you. Unlike an extension guarantee, it creates a cash obligation you need to budget for.
The proposed language is:
“If you complete all deliverables and don’t see [specific result] within 30 days, I refund [X%].”
Calculate Refund Exposure
The original examples use “5% refund rate” to mean that 5% of clients are expected to qualify for a refund, not that each refund is 5% of the contract. Keep those two percentages separate:
- Expected refunds = clients × expected refund invocation rate
- Expected refund cost = expected refunds × contract value × refund percentageAt a $3,000 contract value and 10 clients, a 5% invocation rate implies 0.5 expected refunds. That equals $1,500 only if each qualifying client receives a full refund. At $5,000 per contract, the same full-refund assumption produces $2,500 in expected refunds across 10 clients.
Those figures are expected costs, not maximum exposure. The maximum depends on how many clients can qualify and the refund percentage written into the agreement.
Use Your Delivery Record
The proposed starting threshold for Tier 2 is an 80%+ historical success rate. At 80%, two clients in a 10-client cohort might miss the stated result. If both meet the completion condition and the refund is 25%:
Refund per eligible client: 25% × $5,000 = $1,250.
Cohort refund exposure: 2 × $1,250 = $2,500.
In the earlier 100-call model, moving from 15% to 35% conversion adds 20 clients and $100,000 in gross contract revenue. If four of those 20 clients qualify for a 25% refund, the modeled refunds total $5,000. This comparison assumes the conversion increase occurs; it does not establish that the guarantee caused it.
Check the Unit Economics
The framework uses a 10:1 minimum LTV/CAC target. For an organic-content offer, count content production time in acquisition cost even when paid advertising spend is near zero. Its illustrative inputs are $200–$400 per inbound lead at $40/hour, with $300 used in this example.
At $5,000 LTV and $300 CAC: $5,000 ÷ $300 ≈ 16.7:1.
If expected refunds reduce effective LTV by 5% to $4,750: $4,750 ÷ $300 ≈ 15.8:1.
A 5% expected reduction in LTV is not the same as a 5% invocation rate paired with a partial refund. For example, 5% invocation with a 40% refund creates a 2% expected reduction: $100 per $5,000 client, not $2,000. Model the invocation rate and refund percentage separately before deciding what you can afford.
Protect the Trigger
Require completion of all agreed client deliverables before a refund can be claimed. Define the result and the 30-day measurement window clearly.
If your historical success rate is 70–80%, the proposed adjustment is a smaller 10–15% partial refund rather than a larger refund or a Tier 1 extension promise. Check the resulting exposure against your own margins before offering it.
Tier 3: The Milestone Credit
Tier 3 offers a credit rather than an extension or refund. It gives the buyer a defined fallback while limiting your cash exposure.
The proposed language is:
“If you complete [milestone 1] and don’t see [specific result], I issue a credit for [module X].”
Use this tier when you have fewer than 10 delivered engagements in the specific offer format, or when you launch an offer at a higher price than you have previously sold. The credit shows accountability without promising a refund on an offer you have not fully validated. Define the milestone, result, and credit clearly so the buyer knows what the fallback provides.
Reassess the tier whenever you change the price, format, or target audience. Your overall experience still matters, but results from the earlier version do not automatically establish the success rate of the new one. Start with the tier your evidence supports and advance it as you collect results.
Treat the Close as Risk Allocation
The Risk-Reversal Stack shifts the sales question from “How can I be more persuasive?” to “What downside is the buyer carrying, and what part can I responsibly take on?”
If conversion stays low despite strong calls, proof, and testimonials, investigate whether buyers still lack a clear fallback if the engagement does not work for them. Choose a mechanism you can deliver and afford. A guarantee does not prove that every buyer will succeed; it makes your accountability specific.
Model Your Guarantee Exposure With AI
Manual tier selection can take 3–5 days when you need to gather engagement records, calculate milestone success rates, and model the cost of each guarantee. An AI-assisted first pass can reduce the analysis to about 20 minutes, provided you check its calculations and assumptions.
The $4,500 daily gap calculated earlier applies to the 100-call-per-month example. It does not apply unchanged to an operator running 25 calls per month.
Prepare Your Engagement Data
Compile the client, engagement, milestone, whether the milestone was achieved, and timeline for each delivered engagement. You can paste those records into the prompt as plain text; a formatted table is not necessary.
Offer and sales data
- Offer: [offer]
- Price: $[amount]
- Qualified discovery calls per month: [number]
- Clients closed per month: [number]
Delivery record
- Last [X] engagements: [paste client, engagement, milestone, achieved/not achieved, and timeline for each]
Guarantee options
- Tier 1: Extend the engagement at no charge if [specific milestone] is not reached by [specific date].
- Tier 2: Refund [X]% if the client completes all deliverables but does not achieve [specific result] within 30 days.
- Tier 3: Credit [module X] if the client completes [milestone 1] but does not achieve [specific result].
Analyze this data and recommend a guarantee tier.
- Calculate my current close rate and historical success rate for the relevant milestone.
- Model each tier at my current client volume and at the client volume implied by a 35% close rate, holding monthly call volume constant.
- Show monthly, 6-month, and 12-month refund costs, extension hours, or credit obligations, as applicable.
- Separate refund invocation rate from refund percentage. Show the formulas and assumptions.
- Compare each tier’s modeled monthly exposure with 15% of monthly revenue from this offer.
- Identify missing inputs, delivery-capacity risks, and any tier my track record does not support.
Format the response under: Calculations, Scenarios, Recommendation, and Constraints. Do not assume that a guarantee will cause the close rate to reach 35%.A move from 5 to 15 clients per month can increase the number of refunds, extensions, or credits owed. Review both near-term and 6- and 12-month exposure rather than selecting a tier once and leaving it unchanged.
If you use AI to draft the spoken guarantee, edit out legalistic language. The call version should sound like a clear professional commitment while remaining consistent with the written terms.
The article’s stated tool option is Claude’s free tier at $0, subject to availability and usage limits.
Use the 15% Exposure Filter
Calculate the maximum plausible monthly obligation under your guarantee, then compare it with that month’s revenue from the offer. If exposure is below 15%, the tier passes this framework’s financial screen. If it exceeds 15%, choose a lower-exposure tier or revise the terms. A passing result is a screening rule, not a substitute for checking cash reserves and delivery capacity.
Premium Toolkit available for members
The Risk-Reversal Stack System includes:
Performance Guarantee Design Kit — choose a guarantee tier that reassures buyers without overpromising.
Guarantee Language Templates — write a clear, credible commitment without starting from scratch.
Financial Exposure Calculator — check refund risk against current and projected client volume before making an offer.
Guarantee Presentation Scripts — introduce your guarantee at the right moment in a discovery call.
Guarantee Claims Protocol — resolve claims consistently and protect client trust.
Plug-and-play AI diagnosis sessions — drop into Claude, Gemini or ChatGPT, answer a few questions, save hours of guessing, get your exact next move
Audio key points — concentrated frameworks you can absorb in minutes, implement while you move
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For creators at the Scaling band ($60–150K/year) running high-ticket discovery calls with conversion stuck below 20%. If you’re not yet at consistent high-ticket volume, see Why No One Is Buying Your Offer (And How to Fix the Architecture) first.
The guarantee architecture that moves 20 stuck buyers per 100 calls.
One thing from this section:
The Risk-Reversal Stack doesn’t make you more persuasive — it changes the risk calculation the buyer makes when they’re alone with the decision after the call.
The framework is selected. Now it needs to be installed — the call script, the email sequence, the claim protocol. The next section covers the exact implementation sequence.
How to Add a Performance Guarantee to Your Sales Process
A guarantee is not installed until you have selected a tier, written the terms, and added them to the sales conversation. Each of the three steps needs a defined output.
Step 1: Run the Tier Selection Diagnostic (60 Minutes)
Review delivery results before writing the guarantee. Pull your last 10 engagements in the offer format you plan to guarantee. For each, record:
The milestone the client was working toward.
Whether the client achieved it.
How long it took.
Calculate your success rate: clients who achieved the milestone ÷ total engagements reviewed.
Choose the tier your record supports:
Tier 1, outcome guarantee: More than 70% reached a specific, measurable milestone within your control, across at least 10 delivered engagements.
Tier 2, partial refund of 10–25%: Your success rate is 70–80%, or it is above 80% and you want a defined cash exposure instead of an extension commitment.
Tier 3, milestone credit: You have fewer than 10 delivered engagements in this format or are introducing a new offer format.
If you are considering Tier 2, use your engagement records to estimate how often clients might qualify and what the refunds would cost. Claude’s free tier is an optional tool for modeling those scenarios. Stated tool cost: $0. Time budget: 60 minutes.
Write down your decision:
My tier selection is Tier [X] because [Y]% of clients reached [specific milestone] across [Z] delivered engagements. At my current client volume, the modeled monthly obligation is [amount or extension hours].For example: “My tier selection is Tier 1 because 11 of 14 clients (about 78%) reached a board-level presentation or major keynote opportunity within 90 days.” Before offering it, check that the promised milestone is within the inputs you control; the example’s final opportunity may depend on a third party.
If the diagnostic takes longer than 90 minutes, spend the first 30 minutes gathering missing records. Do not select a tier on confidence alone.
Step 2: Write the Guarantee Language (90 Minutes)
Write one conversational paragraph for the tier you selected in Step 1. Use a separate document, not an email draft, so you can revise it before it appears in a call or follow-up.
Choose the relevant template:
Tier 1: Outcome Guarantee
If you don’t achieve [specific milestone] by [specific date], I extend the engagement at no charge until you do. I’ve delivered this [X] times. [Y] clients achieved that milestone within the original timeline. I’m accountable to that outcome.Tier 2: Partial Refund Trigger
If you complete all [deliverables] and don’t see [specific result] within [30/60/90] days, I refund [X]% of your investment. The completion condition matters because the outcome requires your participation.Tier 3: Milestone Credit
If you complete [milestone 1] and don’t see [specific early result], I issue a full credit for [module X / phase 2 / the next engagement]. That credit carries forward to [where and when it can be used].Read your draft aloud and revise anything that sounds like a contract clause or promises more than the written terms provide.
Tool: Pen and paper or a text document.
Cost: $0.
Time: 90 minutes for the first draft, then 30 minutes to revise after reading it aloud.
Output: One paragraph stating the milestone, timeline, remedy, and relevant delivery record in your voice.
If the work takes longer than two hours, stop and define the milestone first: “What specific, observable, measurable change should occur within this engagement?” Then return to the guarantee.
Completed Example: Tier 1
If you don’t have a functioning client acquisition system that produces at least three qualified leads per week from your content within 90 days of working together, I extend our engagement at no charge until you do. I’ve delivered this engagement 12 times. Ten clients reached three qualified leads per week by day 60.Step 3: Install the Guarantee Into Calls and Follow-Up (2 Hours)
Add the guarantee to your discovery call script and post-call email. Choose one call placement first so you can assess how it works without changing several parts of the conversation at once.
Variant 1: Before the Objection
Use this after presenting the offer and before inviting questions.
Before you share any questions, I want to be clear about one thing upfront. [Insert guarantee statement.] I include that because, at this price point, I want you to know what happens if the agreed result doesn’t happen. What questions do you have?Variant 2: After “I Need to Think About It”
Use this when the buyer hesitates without naming a specific concern.
That makes sense. A $5,000 commitment deserves a clear answer to “what happens if this doesn’t work?” [Insert guarantee statement.] Does that address part of what you need to think through, or is something else giving you pause?Variant 3: Before Discussing Payment
Use this after answering the buyer’s questions and before moving to payment logistics.
Before we look at payment, I want to restate what I’m committing to: [Insert guarantee statement.] Does that address any remaining hesitation?Post-Call Email
Send the follow-up within 2 hours. Recap the call in paragraph one, then put the guarantee in paragraph two.
[Brief recap of the buyer’s goal and the agreed offer.]
As I mentioned on the call, [one-sentence guarantee]. I want you to know exactly what I’m committing to if [specific milestone] isn’t reached by [specific date].Use your existing call script or notes in Google Docs or a note-taking app. Stated cost: $0. Time budget: 2 hours. The outputs are an updated call script and an updated follow-up email template.
If you are unsure where to start, use Variant 1. Track how buyers respond and whether close rate changes before treating it as the best placement for your offer.
Apply the Stack to Three Offer Types
High-Ticket Coach
Business and pipeline: $90K/year; $5,000 for a 90-day engagement; 25 calls per month.
Record: 11 of 14 clients reached the milestone, approximately 78%.
Proposed approach: Tier 1, presented before objections arise.
Week 4 target: Close rate above 28%, up from 15%.
The stated milestone is landing a board-level presentation or major speaking opportunity within 90 days. Because an invitation depends partly on a third party, the coach should verify that this is an outcome they can responsibly guarantee before making the offer.
Course Creator
Business and pipeline: $75K/year; $4,500 group program; 40 strategy calls per launch.
Record: Three cohorts delivered, but no defined milestones tracked, so a success rate cannot yet be calculated.
Proposed approach: Tier 3 until milestone data exists.
If you complete all four modules and don’t have your first offer positioned and live by the end of Week 8, I issue a full credit for a one-on-one positioning session.Use the Tier 3 language on the next three calls, then track milestone completion throughout the cohort. Reassess the tier after the launch.
Consultant
Business and pipeline: $110K/year; $6,000 advisory engagement; 12% close rate on inbound content leads.
Record: 19 of 22 clients achieved the primary diagnostic milestone, approximately 86%.
Proposed approach: Tier 2 because the advisory result depends partly on client implementation.
Proposed trigger: Refund 20% if, within 60 days of completion, the diagnostic framework has not produced at least one documented client decision reversal.
Using a rounded 14% non-achievement rate, modeled refunds for 10 clients are:
- 10 clients × 14% × 20% × $6,000 = $1,680 in expected refund exposure.
- $1,680 ÷ $30,000 monthly offer revenue = 5.6%.The $1,680 figure is an estimate, not a maximum: if more clients qualify, refunds rise. On the stated $30,000+ monthly offer revenue, the estimate is at or below 5.6%, under the framework’s 15% exposure screen.
Check the Guarantee Before Your Next Call
Three core documents must be ready before you use the guarantee live: a data-backed tier selection, a written guarantee statement, and a call script showing where you will say it. The post-call email must also match the guarantee you present. Relying on a version you hold in your head makes delivery and measurement inconsistent.
Guarantee Installation Checkpoint
- Tier selection documented with engagement count, success rate, and exposure calculation? YES/NO
- Guarantee language written, milestone-specific, and tested aloud? YES/NO
- Call script updated with the selected timing variant? YES/NO
- Post-call email template updated to match? YES/NO
- All four YES: Ready to use on a live call.
- Any NO: Complete the missing item before the next call.At a $5,000 offer, the modeled difference between 15% and 35% conversion is $1,000 in expected revenue per qualified call: (35% - 1%) x $5,000. Across 10 calls, that is a $10,000 modeled gap, not $35,000. It is not revenue you can assume the guarantee will recover; use it to understand why consistent installation and measurement matter.
One thing from this section:
The guarantee produces conversion data in the first 10 calls — if close rate doesn’t move, the problem is timing variant selection or milestone specificity, not the guarantee tier.
The architecture is installed. The next section covers how to validate whether it’s working, simulate the two-path outcome at 90 days, and what to adjust when the first version doesn’t produce the expected lift.
How to Test Your Guarantee and Measure Its Cost
An installed guarantee is not a validated guarantee. Track close rate, buyer responses, and the cost of any claims before deciding whether the Risk-Reversal Stack is working. This section models the potential conversion gap, tests extension costs, and shows what to monitor over 90 days.
Calculate Your Conversion Gap
Completed Example: $5,000 Offer, 25 Calls per Month
- Monthly qualified discovery calls: 25
- Current close rate: 15%
- Clients per month at current rate: 25 × 15% = 3.75
- Revenue per month at current rate: 3.75 × $5,000 = $18,750
- Clients per month at 35%: 25 × 35% = 8.75
- Revenue per month at 35%: 8.75 × $5,000 = $43,750
- Monthly gap: $43,750 − $18,750 = $25,000
- Annual gap: $25,000 × 12 = $300,000The client counts are monthly averages, not literal fractional engagements. The gap is a scenario based on a 35% close rate, not revenue the guarantee is proven to recover.
Fill In Your Numbers
- Monthly qualified discovery calls: [calls]
- Current close rate: [rate]%
- Offer price: $[price]
- Clients per month at current rate: [calls] × [rate]% = [clients]
- Revenue per month at current rate: [clients] × $[price] = $[revenue]
- Clients per month at 35%: [calls] × 35% = [clients]
- Revenue per month at 35%: [clients] × $[price] = $[revenue]
- Monthly gap: $[revenue at 35%] − $[current revenue] = $[gap]
- Annual gap: $[gap] × 12 = $[annual gap]Simulate the Guarantee Before Deployment
Budget 30 minutes to work through the scenario on paper or with Claude’s free tier. The example is a coach selling a $5,000 offer through 25 qualified calls per month at a 15% close rate.
Call signals: Average call length is 45 minutes, follow-up email open rate is 78%, and 85% of non-conversions end with “I’ll think about it” followed by silence.
Concern: If clients invoke the guarantee, the coach must deliver additional work without additional payment.
Delivery record: A 78% historical success rate suggests that about 22% of clients may need an extension if the same milestone and conditions apply.
The extension cost is time, not a refund. At an assumed $100 per hour, 12.5 additional hours cost $1,250 per claim.
For a 10-client cohort:
At a modeled 22% claim rate, expected extension time is 27.5 hours.
At $100 per hour, that time costs $2,750.
Against $50,000 in contract revenue, the modeled cost is 5.5%.
Now test Variant 1, which introduces the guarantee before objections. A move from 15% to 32% conversion would change the expected results from 1.5 to 3.2 clients per 10 calls. At 25 calls per month and $5,000 per engagement:
The modeled increase in contract revenue is $21,250 per month, not $8,500.
At 32% conversion, eight expected new clients would carry about $2,200 in extension-time cost at the modeled 22% claim rate.
After that extension-time cost, the modeled monthly difference is $19,050, before other delivery costs.
The $2,750 figure applies to 10 clients; the monthly comparison applies to eight expected new clients. Do not subtract one directly from the other. These figures are assumptions for testing, not observed results or a promised conversion lift.
Compare Two 90-Day Paths
Without the Guarantee
Month 1: At 25 calls, a 15% close rate, and $5,000 per engagement, modeled revenue is $18,750. Calls go well, but follow-ups go unanswered.
Month 2: The creator adds urgency language and a same-day discount. At 25 calls and a 14% close rate, the modeled revenue is $17,500.
Month 3: The creator lowers the price to $3,500. At 25 calls and a 19% close rate, modeled revenue is $16,625, not $20,000.
Under those stated call, price, and close-rate assumptions, the 90-day total is $52,875, not $56,250. Conversion remains unresolved, and the offer now carries a lower price.
With the Guarantee
Month 1: Tier 1 and Variant 1 are installed in Week 1. At 25 calls, a modeled 24% close rate, and $5,000 per engagement, revenue is $30,000.
Month 2: At a modeled 35% close rate, revenue is $43,750. No client invokes the guarantee that month.
Month 3: The modeled close rate holds at 35%, producing $43,750. One client invokes the Tier 1 extension and reaches the milestone on Day 95 after six additional hours; a testimonial follows.
The modeled 90-day total is $117,500. The six hours have a delivery cost even though no refund reduces contract revenue. Treat the improved close rate, post-call response, and testimonial as scenario assumptions until your own data confirms them.
Track the Guarantee at Each Checkpoint
Day 14
Document the tier selection using your engagement count and success-rate data.
Write the guarantee and test it aloud at least once.
Use it on a minimum of five discovery calls.
If you have not met these installation steps, finish them before using the guarantee. Do not assume every call without it would have closed at a lower rate; that is what the test is meant to establish.
Week 4
Review at least 10 calls where the guarantee was used.
Compare the observed close rate with the proposed 25% checkpoint, up from a 15% baseline. The 35% figure remains a 90-day scenario target, not a promised result.
Have the claims process ready even if no claims have arrived. Zero claims in the first 30 days does not establish what the later claim rate will be.
If the observed rate is below 25%, test Variant 2, introducing the guarantee after hesitation, on the next 10 calls. Compare buyer responses as well as close rates; 10 calls per variant provide only an early signal.
Week 8
Compare the guarantee-active close rate with the proposed 30% checkpoint.
Review the claims process and handle any claims received.
Add outcomes from new clients to your engagement record and recalculate the milestone success rate.
If the rate remains below 30%, check whether the milestone is observable and easy for the buyer to picture. Use the AI-assisted review to identify vague wording, then revise the guarantee and track the next set of calls separately. A missed checkpoint is a reason to investigate, not proof that wording alone caused the result.
Retest the Guarantee If Conversion Stays Flat
Change one element at a time. Use each 10-call cycle to observe buyer responses and close rate, without treating a small sample as proof of cause.
After 10 calls with no observed lift, change the timing variant. If you started with Variant 1 (pre-objection), use Variant 2 (post-objection) for the next 10 calls. If you started with Variant 2, test Variant 3 (close sequence).
If changing the timing shows no improvement, simplify the milestone for the next 10 calls. Use a concrete outcome the client can see and confirm within 30 days. Keep the timing variant unchanged during this cycle.
After at least 30 calls across these cycles, revisit the diagnostic in Check Your Last 10 Discovery Calls. If the guarantee still shows no useful signal, investigate offer positioning and call structure rather than assuming perceived risk is the primary constraint.
Updating the script is estimated to take 2 hours. At five calls per week, a 10-call retest takes approximately two weeks.
The stated $35,000 “continuation cost” does not follow from the article’s 15% versus 35% model. At $5,000 per offer, that 20-percentage-point gap across 10 calls equals $10,000 in modeled revenue, not $35,000. Neither figure is a guaranteed recoverable loss; both depend on whether conversion can actually improve.
Read the Signals Behind a Stalled Close
Signal 1: “I Need to Think About It”
If more than 40% of non-converting calls end without a stated objection, investigate whether the buyer understands what happens if the engagement misses its milestone. Do not assume every vague response is about risk; ask what remains unresolved.
Signal 2: Referrals Convert Faster
If referrals close at 3–5 times the rate of inbound leads, or the spread exceeds 2×, existing trust may explain part of the difference. Compare lead fit and buying readiness as well before attributing the gap to trust alone. A guarantee can give inbound buyers a clearer commitment, but it may not erase the full spread.
Signal 3: Silence After 48 Hours
If more than 60% of non-conversions go quiet within 48 hours without a clear “no,” examine what the follow-up email says about the buyer’s downside. Restate the specific guarantee there, then track whether replies and closes change.
Catch Guarantee Failures Early
Failure Mode 1: Claims Exceed the Projection
Early signal: By Month 2, the claim rate is higher than the historical percentage of clients who missed the milestone.
Check whether the current offer, client mix, or milestone differs from the engagements used to select the tier. If the obligation is no longer sustainable, move to a lower-exposure tier for new clients, such as Tier 1 to Tier 2 or Tier 2 to Tier 3. Keep the original guarantee for clients who bought under it. Review and correct the setup within 30 days of the first unexpected claim.
Failure Mode 2: Buyers Use the Guarantee to Negotiate Price
Early signal: Prospects ask for “the refund version” or a lower upfront payment instead of discussing the offer’s fit.
Test Variant 3 by introducing the guarantee after the price discussion, just before payment logistics. Keep the terms intact; change only when you present them.
Failure Mode 3: A Claim Is Delayed or Deflected
Early signal: A client invokes the guarantee, but no one records the claim or explains what happens next.
Use the written claims protocol immediately. Document the request, check the agreed trigger, and communicate the next step within 24 hours. Honor any extension, refund, or credit owed under the client’s terms.
Remove Single Points of Failure
Missing Outcome Data
Without milestone results for each engagement, tier selection becomes a guess. If you cannot calculate a success rate for this offer format, start with Tier 3. Record the milestone and outcome before each offboarding call ends; the proposed task takes five minutes.
No Timing Fallback
If Variant 1 works, keep measuring it rather than assuming it will work for every audience. Test Variant 2 on every fifth call as a baseline comparison. Note that an occasional alternate call provides directional feedback, not a dependable estimate of which variant closes better.
No Claims Protocol
Write the claims protocol before using the guarantee on a live call. Budget 30 minutes during Step 1 to define how a claim is received, checked against the trigger, recorded, and fulfilled. Do not wait for the first client request to decide how the promise works.
Stress-Test Exposure After a Revenue Drop
The scenario models a fall from $43,750 to $30,000 in monthly offer revenue, approximately a 31% decline. It assumes 8.75 clients, a 14% refund invocation rate, a 20% refund, and a $5,000 contract:
Expected refund cost: 8.75 × 14% × 20% × $5,000 = $1,225.
Share of $30,000 revenue: $1,225 ÷ $30,000 ≈ 4.1%.
Framework threshold: Below 15%.
The calculation passes the 15% screen under those assumptions. But 8.75 new clients at $5,000 each would imply $43,750 in new contract revenue, so the $30,000 figure must represent a separate revenue-drop scenario rather than revenue from those same 8.75 clients. Recalculate claim volume and available cash together if cancellations or a slower pipeline caused the decline.
The next section, the Guarantee Track Record Protocol, covers how to update tier selection as new client outcomes come in.
Recalibrate Your Guarantee Every 10 Engagements
A guarantee selected without data is a guess. A guarantee left unchanged as delivery results shift can become a liability. After every 10 engagements, spend 30 minutes reviewing outcomes and claims, including engagements where no guarantee was invoked.
The Guarantee Track Record Protocol asks four questions.
Question 1: How Often Was the Guarantee Invoked?
Calculate claims ÷ 10 for the latest cohort. With only 10 clients, each claim changes the rate by 10 percentage points, so use the thresholds as review triggers rather than precise estimates.
0–10%: Maintain the tier if delivery results and exposure also remain sound.
11–20%: Investigate the claims and consider a lower-commitment tier for new clients.
Above 20%: Move new clients to a lower-commitment tier immediately and review the cause.
The source also calls 15% a warning point, which conflicts with the “above 20%” downgrade rule. Use 15% as an early exposure warning; use the cohort thresholds above for the tier decision. Existing clients keep the guarantee they bought.
Question 2: Why Did Clients Invoke It?
Look for a pattern before changing the promise.
Claims cluster at one phase, such as Week 6: Review that delivery checkpoint.
Claims cluster around a client profile or traffic source: Review qualification and add a relevant screening criterion to the discovery call.
Claims appear across phases and client types: Recheck whether the milestone and timeline match what your delivery can consistently achieve.
If the milestone is too ambitious, define a more achievable, observable checkpoint. Do not shorten the time allowed to reach the same difficult outcome and assume that reduces claims.
Question 3: Has the Success Rate Changed?
Compare the latest 10 engagements with your earlier baseline.
Above 80% and rising: Consider testing a higher-commitment tier for new clients. For example, a Tier 3 creator can test Tier 2 language on the next 10 calls after checking refund exposure.
Stable: Maintain the tier if claims and delivery costs remain acceptable.
Below the current tier’s threshold: Move new clients to a lower-commitment tier without waiting for another cohort.
Question 4: Has the Offer Changed?
Reassess the tier when you add an offer, raise its price, or change its format. Results from an earlier version may help you design delivery, but they do not establish the outcome rate for the new version.
For example, a 90% success rate on a $3,000 offer is not a measured success rate on its $7,000 version. Start the revised offer at Tier 3 under this protocol, then advance its guarantee as you collect relevant outcomes.
GUARANTEE TRACK RECORD PROTOCOL
Run after every 10 engagements
Invocation rate 0-10%? -> Maintain tier
Invocation rate 11-20%? -> Review pattern
Invocation rate 20%+? -> Downgrade tier
Success rate rising? -> Test next tier up
Success rate stable? -> Maintain
Success rate dropping? -> Downgrade now
New price/format? -> Reset to Tier 3Keep Guarantee Exposure Sustainable as You Scale
At the Scaling band ($60–150K/year), the modeled upside of a higher close rate is significant. On a $5,000 offer with 25 qualified calls per month, moving from 15% to 35% conversion would add $25,000 in monthly contract revenue, or $300,000 across 12 months, without increasing call volume. That is a scenario, not a predicted result; delivering the additional engagements would also require capacity.
Refund obligations can grow with client volume. For a Tier 2 guarantee on a $5,000 offer:
- Clients per month: 20
- Expected invocation rate: 20%
- Refund per eligible client: 25% × $5,000 = $1,250
- Expected monthly refunds: 20 × 20% × $1,250 = $5,000At $100,000 in monthly offer revenue, $5,000 is 5%, below this framework’s 15% exposure screen. At $40,000, it is 12.5%, also below 15%, but leaves less room for other costs and cash-flow pressure. Neither figure alone proves the refund obligation is affordable.
There is also a volume mismatch to check: 20 new $5,000 clients would generate $100,000 in new contract revenue. If monthly revenue is only $40,000, confirm whether the 20 clients and their potential claims come from earlier cohorts before using that figure as the denominator.
Treat the guarantee as a policy you recalibrate, not one you set and forget. Review outcomes and obligations after every 10 engagements. Advance the tier when the delivery record supports it; lower the commitment for new clients when results or exposure no longer do.
One thing from this section:
A guarantee that isn’t recalibrated with your track record data stops functioning as a confidence signal and starts functioning as a financial liability — the difference is 30 minutes of review after every 10 engagements.
Running This System in Your Current Condition
Contraction: Protect Cash and Capacity
When revenue is declining or unstable, a refund or open-ended extension can add pressure to an already strained business. Do not deploy Tier 1 or Tier 2 in contraction if monthly revenue from this offer is below $20,000.
Run the tier selection diagnostic, but use Tier 3, the milestone credit, as the temporary starting point regardless of your historical success rate. Define the credit clearly; it still creates a future delivery obligation.
If managing claims takes more time than delivering engagements, pause new guarantee deployments. Fulfill existing promises, then recalibrate before offering the guarantee again. Reconsider the tier when revenue from the offer stabilizes above $20,000 per month.
Stability: Test Conversion Before Adding Leads
With consistent revenue, the offer and pipeline are already working. Yet at a 15–35% close rate, 65–85% of qualified conversations do not convert. Test whether a clearly defined guarantee improves conversion before treating lead volume as the only growth lever.
Track claims per 10-client cohort alongside close rate. If invocation stays flat or rises while revenue is stable, review client fit and the milestone definition rather than assuming the guarantee remains well matched.
Expansion: Reset the Tier for New Offers
Do not apply Offer A’s invocation rate to a higher-priced or differently delivered Offer B. The client profile, milestone, and work required may change.
For a new offer, begin with Tier 3. Consider Tier 2 after 10 delivered engagements with defined milestone data, then Tier 1 after 10 more, provided the new offer’s results and exposure support each move.
When more than three guarantee-carrying offers are active, standardize how claims are received, recorded, and resolved. Keep each offer’s actual milestone and remedy distinct so a shared process does not blur what you promised individual clients.
The Risk-Reversal Stack in the Creator Operating System
Why No One Is Buying Your Offer (And How to Fix the Architecture) makes outcomes and milestones specific enough to guarantee. Use this when your offer promises vague results.
How to Run a Discovery Call That Closes Without Feeling Like You’re Selling shows when to present your offer and guarantee. Use this when buyers hesitate after hearing your offer.
How to Create and Sell High-Ticket Offers ($5K–$25K) structures the positioning, pricing, and delivery behind a credible offer. Use this when designing high-ticket coaching.
The Imposter Protocol - Managing the Expert Gap During Scale helps you communicate a proven track record confidently. Use this when you hesitate to stand behind results.
Product Ladder for Solo Creators ($9 to $995): Structuring Offers for Maximum Ascension places the guaranteed offer within your broader offer stack. Use this when buyers move between offer tiers.
Choose Your Next Guarantee Action
No tier selected? Spend the next 60 minutes on the tier selection diagnostic.
Tier selected and language written, but not yet used? Add it to your call script and deploy it on your next qualified call.
Guarantee used on 10 calls without an observed lift? Change the timing variant for the next 10 calls. Keep the language unchanged so you can assess one variable at a time.
Your Conversion Fix Starts Now
At Week 8, you’ll be able to say:
“My guarantee tier is selected from track record data, not from gut feel. I know exactly what my success rate is and what my maximum exposure is at current volume.”
“My close rate data from the last 10 guarantee-active calls shows a directional lift from where I started. The conversion floor has moved.”
“I have a written claims protocol. If a client invokes the guarantee today, I know the exact sequence: communication within 24 hours, documentation, resolution path.”
Three time-boxed actions:
In the next 60 minutes: Run the tier selection diagnostic.
Pull your last 10 delivered engagements and calculate the milestone success rate.
Select your tier and write a one-sentence rationale.
This week: Prepare the guarantee for calls.
Write the guarantee using your tier’s template and test it aloud three times.
Add it to your call script at the selected timing variant.
Before next month: Deploy and review.
Use the guarantee on at least 10 calls and record the outcome of each.
Review close-rate data after the 10-call cycle. Recalibrate your delivery track record after the next 10 completed engagements.
Risk-Reversal Stack Progress Milestones
Milestone 1: Tier selection documented with success rate from a minimum of 10 delivered engagements. Tier decision justified in one sentence with data, not with preference.
Milestone 2: Guarantee language written, milestone-specific, tested aloud. Guarantee deployed on minimum 5 calls using the selected timing variant.
Milestone 3: Close rate data from minimum 10 guarantee-active calls recorded and reviewed. Close rate directional improvement confirmed (above 20% from a 15% baseline).
Milestone 4: First track record recalibration complete after 10 engagements. Invocation rate calculated. Tier selection confirmed or adjusted based on data.
Milestone 5: Close rate at 30%+ sustained across 20 calls. Claims protocol tested (invoked or reviewed). Guarantee architecture operating as a consistent conversion mechanism, not a one-time experiment.
If you take one thing from each section:
High-ticket buyers may hesitate because they carry too much of the downside, not because a competitor has stronger credentials. A structured guarantee makes your commitment clear on the call.
The Risk-Reversal Stack changes the buyer’s risk calculation, including during the post-call decision window. It does not depend on a more persuasive pitch.
After 10 guarantee-active calls, review close rate and buyer responses. If conversion has not improved, test the timing variant, then the milestone language, one change at a time. Do not rule out tier selection or other causes from 10 calls alone.
After 90 days and at least 30 guarantee-active calls, review whether buyer risk remains the likely constraint. If close rate has not moved, investigate offer positioning and call structure upstream.
Spend 30 minutes reviewing claims, outcomes, and tier fit after every 10 completed engagements. Recalibration helps prevent a credible promise from becoming an unsustainable obligation.
But if you remember only one thing:
The buyer who doesn’t close your $5K+ offer isn’t saying no to the outcome, they’re saying no to carrying the full risk of a wrong decision alone. The Risk-Reversal Stack moves that risk from their side of the table to yours, in three minutes, without lowering the price or softening the offer.
Risk-Reversal Stack Checklist
Pull your engagement data and deploy the correct guarantee tier before your next discovery call.
☐ Calculate success rate from last 10 delivered engagements with measurable milestones
☐ Select tier using criteria: Tier 1 above 70%, Tier 2 at 70–80%, Tier 3 below 10 engagements
☐ Write one paragraph of guarantee language in your voice, milestone-specific
☐ Insert guarantee into call script at the correct timing variant — pre-objection, post-objection, or close
☐ Add guarantee sentence to post-call follow-up email sent within two hours of the call
Guarantee is fully installed when all four written outputs exist before the next call.
FAQ: Risk-Reversal Stack
Q: Do I need a refund policy before I can offer a performance guarantee?
A: No. A refund policy and a performance guarantee are structurally different. A refund policy removes the downside after the fact. A guarantee architecture changes the buyer’s perceived risk before the decision is made — on the call, in the moment, before hesitation calcifies.
Q: What if my success rate is only 60% — can I still use a guarantee?
A: At 60%, neither Tier 1 nor Tier 2 are sustainable. Tier 3 is the correct starting point. A milestone credit signals accountability without creating financial exposure on an offer whose track record doesn’t yet support higher-commitment tiers. Build 10 more engagements with tracked milestone data, then recalibrate.
Q: How specific does the guaranteed milestone need to be?
A: Specific enough that both you and the client can confirm in one sentence whether it was achieved. “A functioning email nurture sequence live and generating replies” is guaranteeable. “Feeling more confident in your business” is not.
Q: What happens if a client invokes the guarantee and I disagree that they qualify?
A: The claims protocol must be written before the guarantee is deployed. It defines the documentation requirement and the resolution path. A guarantee invoked without a written protocol gets improvised — improvised resolutions produce inconsistent outcomes and, when delayed or deflected, become public trust events that damage conversion more than a sub-20% close rate ever did.
Q: Can I offer different guarantee tiers to different clients depending on how the call goes?
A: No. The tier is selected before the call based on your track record data, not on the feel of the conversation. A creator who varies the guarantee offer mid-call based on buyer enthusiasm is selecting from confidence rather than data — that produces mismatched exposure and an inconsistent signal to buyers who compare notes.
Q: How long before I see a measurable lift in close rate after deploying the guarantee?
A: Directional data is visible within 10 guarantee-active calls. At Week 4, target close rate is at or above 25% — not yet at 35%, but moving. If close rate has not moved after 10 calls with consistent guarantee deployment, the first variable to change is the timing variant, not the tier or the milestone language.
Q: What do I do when I raise the price of an existing offer?
A: Treat the track record for the new price point as zero regardless of your history at the previous price. A creator with 90% success rate at a $3K offer who raises to $7K has zero track record at $7K.
Q: My close rate on referrals is 40% but inbound leads convert at 12%. Is the guarantee the right fix?
A: Yes — this gap is the guarantee’s exact use case. Referrals arrive pre-trusting; inbound leads carry the full weight of perceived risk. The spread between your referral and inbound close rates tells you the size of the trust gap the guarantee needs to close.
Q: What if I install the guarantee and close rate doesn’t move at all after 20 calls?
A: After 20 calls with no conversion lift, follow the rollback protocol. First, switch the timing variant. Second, simplify the milestone language to the most concrete observable outcome you have delivered consistently.
Q: How do I recalibrate the guarantee as my client volume grows?
A: Run the Guarantee Track Record Protocol after every 10 engagements. It takes 30 minutes and answers four questions — invocation rate, invocation pattern, success rate trend, and whether a new offer format requires a tier reset. At $60–$150K/year, guarantee exposure scales with volume.
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